Half of New Grocery Customers Churn After Their First Month, New Upside Report Finds
Uncommitted shoppers make up 72% of a grocer’s revenue, but most don’t come back without timely engagement
June 10, 2025 – WASHINGTON, D.C. — A new report from Upside, Winning the Uncommitted Customer, reveals a critical retention gap in grocery: 50% of new grocery customers never return after their first month.
Based on 75 million transactions and two years of retailer and consumer survey data, the report shows that uncommitted customers — those who routinely shop across different brands — drive 72% of a grocer’s revenue. Though these shoppers are difficult to win, they can be influenced. The grocers who influence their behavior early have a clear opportunity to unlock meaningful growth.
“The data shows that a visit — or even a loyalty membership — doesn’t mean a customer is here to stay,” said Dr. Thomas Weinandy, Senior Research Economist at Upside. “To retain customers and recoup acquisition costs, grocers need to prioritize winning each and every successive transaction. Winning just one trip a month could create a meaningful boost in revenue.”
Despite the findings, many retailers underestimate the scope of the problem. In Upside’s survey, 53% of grocery retailers said they don’t believe a meaningful portion of their customers are uncommitted. But the data shows otherwise: 93% of grocery shoppers fit this profile — and they span all ages, income levels, and household types.
The business case for prioritizing this group is clear. In grocery, just one additional visit per month from uncommitted customers could drive an 84% increase in overall revenue — helping grocers turn one-time visits into lasting relationships and justify their acquisition investment.
Loyalty programs help — compared to the 31% of customers who don’t use incentives, only 14% of loyalty members churn in a given month. But given the amount that grocers generally spend to get loyalty members to enroll, minimizing this gap should be a priority.
When paired with Upside’s personalized, margin-bound offers, retention improves even further. At the cardholder level, loyalty and Upside together improve retention by 60%. Uncommitted customers are value-seeking, digital, and opportunistic — when grocers meet that criteria with personalized promotions, these customers show a willingness to change their behavior.
“Acquiring a new customer is expensive, and while loyalty programs help keep customers engaged, they’re not enough on their own,” said Tyler Renaghan, VP of Grocery at Upside. “The real missed opportunity is a stronger focus on customer retention. Winning over uncommitted customers requires building lasting habits — and that starts by earning every single transaction, beginning with the very first trip.”
More insights, strategies, and industry benchmarks are available in the full Winning the Uncommitted Customer report linked here.
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