64% of New Restaurant Customers Churn After Their First Month, New Upside Report Finds
Uncommitted customers make up 70% of a restaurant’s revenue, but most don’t come back without timely engagement
June 10, 2025 – WASHINGTON, D.C. — A new report from Upside, Winning the Uncommitted Customer, reveals a critical retention gap in the restaurant industry: 64% of new restaurant customers never return after their first month.
Based on 75 million transactions and two years of retailer and consumer survey data, the report shows that uncommitted customers — those who routinely visit different brands and even blend channels — drive 70% of a restaurant’s revenue. Though these customers are difficult to win, they can be influenced. The restaurants who influence their behavior early have a clear opportunity to unlock meaningful growth.
“The data shows that a visit doesn’t mean a customer is here to stay,” said Dr. Thomas Weinandy, Senior Research Economist at Upside. “To retain customers and recoup acquisition costs, restaurants need to prioritize winning each and every successive transaction. Winning just one more meal a month could create a meaningful boost in revenue.”
Despite the findings, many retailers underestimate the scope of the problem. In Upside’s survey, 65% of restaurant retailers said they don’t believe a meaningful portion of their customers are uncommitted. But the data shows otherwise: 71% of restaurant customers fit this profile — and they span all ages, income levels, and household types.
The business case for prioritizing this group is clear. In the restaurant industry, just one additional visit per month from uncommitted customers could drive a 209% increase in overall revenue — helping restaurants turn one-time visits into lasting relationships and justify their acquisition investment.
Upside’s personalized, margin-bound offers improve retention by helping customers build habits — starting with the very first transaction. At the cardholder level, Upside boosts retention by 28% in the restaurant industry. Uncommitted customers are value-seeking, digital, and opportunistic — when grocers meet that criteria with personalized promotions, these customers show a willingness to change their behavior.
“This data reinforces what we’re hearing from brands and operators every day. Repeat visits are harder to earn,” said Ryan Gaylor, Head of Restaurant at Upside. “This report proves that while most customers aren’t loyal, they are influenceable and the restaurant vertical has the greatest opportunity to gain from engaging uncommitted customers more effectively.”
More insights, strategies, and industry benchmarks are available in the full Winning the Uncommitted Customer report linked here.
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